China's economic performance in October showed mixed results, with industrial output growth slowing to 5.3%, missing expectations, while retail sales saw a notable boost of 4.8% due to a week-long holiday and the Singles' Day shopping event. Despite increased consumer spending, challenges persist, particularly in the property sector, where demand remains sluggish. Although recent policy measures appear to be having a positive effect, many economists believe it may be too soon to declare a robust recovery.
Adding to the uncertainty is the recent U.S. election result, with Donald Trump's return to the presidency posing a renewed threat to China’s economy. Trump has promised to reimpose high tariffs on Chinese goods, leading economists to predict that China may need to expand its fiscal deficit and cut policy rates in 2025 to counter potential fallout. Though China’s central bank recently introduced a significant stimulus package and local government debt relief measures, analysts warn that the economy may slow again in the second half of next year under these new pressures.
