Trump’s top advisers are cautiously optimistic about his performance, emphasizing that their success depends largely on voter turnout.
"We believe that if the people we expect to vote for President Trump actually turn out, he should win. It’s a very close race," a senior adviser said. "It may seem obvious, but turnout is truly the key factor, and it’s our main focus right now."
The team claims Trump’s performance in polls is stronger this cycle than in 2016 or 2020. As a comparison, they highlighted the final NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll of 2020, which had Biden leading Trump by 10 points among registered voters.
However, there is some underlying concern. Advisers admit there may be fewer “silent” Trump voters—those who were discreet about their support in 2016 and 2020.
“Previously, Trump’s turnout exceeded expectations, especially in 2016, with many voters quietly supporting him in ways polls didn’t always capture. It’s unclear if we’ll see the same kind of turnout boost this time.”
